Alaska Governor Election Winner
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 100%, ahead of Bernadette Wilson at 0.4%. $2.0M has traded across 22 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 100%
- Bernadette Wilson 0.4%
- Matt Heilala 0.1%
- Lisa Murkowski 0.1%
- Matt Claman 0.1%
Show the numbers
| Date | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | Bernadette Wilson | Matt Heilala | Lisa Murkowski | Matt Claman |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 3.2% | 30.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| August 20, 2026 | 31.0% | 27.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| August 26, 2026 | 31.4% | 35.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| September 2, 2026 | 60.0% | 35.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 9, 2026 | 59.8% | 30.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| September 16, 2026 | 66.1% | 27.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| September 22, 2026 | 83.2% | 15.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 29, 2026 | 78.1% | 19.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 6, 2026 | 74.5% | 21.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 14, 2026 | 76.4% | 22.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 23, 2026 | 84.5% | 15.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| November 3, 2026 | 87.2% | 10.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| November 10, 2026 | 99.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 99.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins in "Alaska Governor Election Winner "?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 100% as of November 11, 2026, up 2 points from a week earlier. A 100 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Bernadette Wilson in "Alaska Governor Election Winner "?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.4% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 0 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Matt Heilala in "Alaska Governor Election Winner "?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.2% as of November 11, 2026. A 0 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.