What the market thinks
Every question here has at least $1 million traded on Polymarket. Pages refresh with each build and show when.
Politics
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028J.D. Vance 31%
- Presidential Election Winner 2028JD Vance 17%
- Next French Presidential ElectionMarine Le Pen 46%
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Jon Ossoff 27%
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?March 31 66%
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes 13%
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 8%
- Taipei Mayor Election WinnerChiang Wan-an 66%
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Gadi Eizenkot 61%
- Alaska Senate Election WinnerMary Peltola (D) 99%
- Next leader out of power before 2027?None before 2027 51%
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes 1%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes 2%
- Next Prime Minister of SwedenUlf Kristersson 50%
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?December 31, 2026 38%
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by...?December 31, 2027 39%
- US imports Russian diesel by...?March 31 13%
- Mississippi Senate Election WinnerScott Colom (D) 99%
- Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?Howard Lutnick 24%
- Next Press Secretary announced by...?December 31 71%
- Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)None 99%
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?Nicolás Maduro 92%
- Putin out as President of Russia by...?June 30, 2027 9%
- NC-03 House Election WinnerRaymond Smith Jr. (D) 99%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes 9%
- Argentina Presidential Election WinnerJavier Milei 44%
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?China 92%
- New Zealand legislative election winner?National Party 98%
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?December 31 2%
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes 2%
- Next Prime Minister of Spain?Alberto Núñez Feijóo 93%
- Iran leadership change by...?June 30, 2027 20%
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?December 31 8%
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes 3%
- Trump out as President before 2027?Yes 2%
- Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?No meeting before 2027 96%
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?December 31, 2027 70%
- Iran leader end of 2026?Mojtaba Khamenei 94%
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Yes 9%
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes 2%
- Iran Nuke before 2027?Yes 3%
- Alaska Governor Election Winner Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 100%
- US strike on Colombia by...?December 31 25%
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?4.25% 85%
- Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)44 99%
- Next Prime Minister of Serbia?Dejan Šoškić 38%
- Kash Patel out by...?December 31 10%
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?December 31, 2027 38%
- Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Rahm Emanuel 27%
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?June 30, 2027 54%
- Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Vladimir Putin 92%
- Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Somaliland 10%
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes 3%
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Yes 4%
- Will Trump be impeached by...?December 31, 2027 56%
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?December 31, 2026 2%
- What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? ↑ 4.25% 95%
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?June 30, 2027 8%
- What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) 15%
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?December 31 2%
- Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?Democratic 68%
- Netanyahu out by...?June 30, 2027 69%
- Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?December 31, 2026 5%
- How high will inflation get in 2026?Above 4.5% 10%
- Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?December 31 2%
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Steve Witkoff 37%
- Will Russia capture Lyman by...?December 31 4%
- Will Alberta join the US? Yes 1%
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?December 31 4%
- France declares state of emergency by...?December 31 3%
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?Yes 1%
- Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?December 31 4%
- Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?December 31, 2026 5%
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes 2%
- Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?December 31, 2027 15%
- Indiana enacts data center moratorium by...?December 31, 2028 31%
- US strike on Mexico by...?December 31 2%
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?June 30, 2027 20%
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?December 31 4%
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?December 31 3%
- Will US withdraw from NATO by...?December 31 0.7%
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Yes 1%
- Will any country leave NATO by...?December 31, 2027 7%
- Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Yes 3%
- Russia nuclear test by...?December 31, 2026 3%
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?4 81%
- Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?December 31 2%
- Will Hezbollah disarm by...?December 31 2%
- Greece x Turkey military engagement by...?December 31 5%
- Ukraine election called by...?December 31, 2027 60%
- US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?November 30 93%
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Yes 1%
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?Yes 0.9%
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?December 31 6%
- Will Tim Walz resign by...?December 31 2%
- Ukraine election held by...?December 31, 2026 2%
- Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?December 31 0.7%
- Macron out by...?December 31, 2026 2%
- Satoshi's identity be proven by...?December 31 2%
- Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?March 31 15%
- Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?December 31 4%
- Lai Ching-te impeached by...?December 31 5%
Culture
- Kai Cenat finishes GTA marathon by...?November 16 (11:59 PM ET) 100%
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?Spider-Man: Brand New Day 90%
- Next James Bond actor?Callum Turner 32%
- GTA 6 launch postponed again?Yes 0.9%
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Yes 0.7%
- Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?Avengers: Doomsday 77%
- Pro Football: 2026 MVP WinnerJoe Burrow 33%
- Top Spotify Artist 2026Bad Bunny 96%
- New "Stranger Things" episode released by...? March 31, 2027 5%
- Human moon landing in 2026?Yes 0.5%
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?1 92%
- Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?Max Martin 23%
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?December 31, 2027 24%
- MLB: 2026 NL MVPPete Crow-Armstrong 99%
- MLB: 2026 AL MVP Yordan Alvarez 99%
- Bachelorette Season 22 WinnerOther (Season Cancelled) 95%
- Taylor Swift pregnant by...?December 31, 2026 7%
- MLB: 2026 AL Cy Young WinnerCam Schlittler 100%
- MLB: 2026 NL Cy Young WinnerJacob Misiorowski 99%
Sports
- UEFA Champions League: 2027 ChampionBarcelona 24%
- NBA: 2027 ChampionSan Antonio Spurs 22%
- Pro Football: 2027 ChampionBuffalo Bills 15%
- EPL: 2027 ChampionArsenal 77%
- Worlds 2026: WinnerGen.G 63%
- NCAA Football: 2027 National ChampionGeorgia Bulldogs 30%
- Who will be UFC Middleweight champion at the end of 2026?Sean Strickland 92%
- NHL: 2027 ChampionCarolina Hurricanes 13%
- Worlds 2026 Winning RegionLCK (South Korea) 63%
- Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers 28%
- LALIGA: 2027 ChampionBarcelona 71%
- MLS Cup Winner 2026Nashville SC 24%
- NBA: 2026-27 Rookie of the YearYaxel Lendeborg 35%
- Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion Buffalo Bills 25%
- Serie A: 2027 ChampionInter Milan 62%
- Bundesliga: 2027 ChampionBayern Munich 88%
- F1 Constructors' ChampionMercedes 100%
- Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?Joshua Van 96%
- Who will be UFC Light Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?Carlos Ulberg 95%