What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is ↑ 4.25% at 95%, ahead of ↑ 4.5% at 12%. $1.9M has traded across 21 outcomes. The biggest move this week: ↑ 4.25%, +22 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- ↑ 4.25% 95%
- ↑ 4.5% 12%
- ↑ 5.25% 2%
- ↑ 5.5% 2%
- ↓ 1.5% 2%
Show the numbers
| Date | ↑ 4.25% | ↑ 4.5% | ↑ 5.25% | ↑ 5.5% | ↓ 1.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 23.2% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 13.3% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 12.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| September 3, 2026 | 24.9% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| September 10, 2026 | 27.5% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| September 17, 2026 | 73.5% | 23.8% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| September 24, 2026 | 86.6% | 36.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| October 1, 2026 | 79.5% | 27.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| October 8, 2026 | 76.8% | 15.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| October 15, 2026 | 78.8% | 20.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| October 25, 2026 | 73.9% | 8.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| November 2, 2026 | 69.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| November 10, 2026 | 80.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 94.8% | 11.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for ↑ 4.25% in "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 95% as of November 11, 2026, up 22 points from a week earlier. A 95 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for ↑ 4.5% in "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 12% as of November 11, 2026, up 9 points from a week earlier. A 12 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for ↑ 5.25% in "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.