Scorecards

How the markets did, checked against what happened.

• How Accurate Were Prediction Markets on the 2026 Midterms?

  Prediction markets called both chambers of Congress correctly in the November 3, 2026 midterms, and Kalshi's favorites won 479 of 487 races resolved by the next morning. Most of those races were safe. In competitive races the markets still did well, but every known upset went to Democrats, which points to one shared error.