The Prediction Desk: Prediction markets and the rest of the world

Culture

Hollywood Studios Warn Staff Off Prediction Market Bets

Hollywood studios and production companies have quietly told employees not to bet on prediction markets tied to their work, including casting, earnings and release dates, The Hollywood Reporter reported on November 5, 2026. Entertainment markets are full of secrets a few insiders know in advance, and exchanges and employers both struggle to police them.

What the market thinks

  1. Kai Cenat finishes GTA marathon by...?November 16 (11:59 PM ET): 100%
  2. Republican Presidential Nominee 2028J.D. Vance: 31%
  3. Presidential Election Winner 2028JD Vance: 17%
  4. Next French Presidential ElectionMarine Le Pen: 46%
  5. UEFA Champions League: 2027 ChampionBarcelona: 24%
  6. Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Jon Ossoff: 27%
  7. NBA: 2027 ChampionSan Antonio Spurs: 22%
  8. US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?March 31: 66%
Scorecards

How Accurate Were Prediction Markets on the 2026 Midterms?

Prediction markets called both chambers of Congress correctly in the November 3, 2026 midterms, and Kalshi's favorites won 479 of 487 races resolved by the next morning. Most of those races were safe. In competitive races the markets still did well, but every known upset went to Democrats, which points to one shared error.