Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is J.D. Vance at 31%, ahead of Marco Rubio at 18%. $733M has traded across 43 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Marco Rubio, −4 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- J.D. Vance 31%
- Marco Rubio 18%
- Ron DeSantis 16%
- Tucker Carlson 4%
- John McEntee 4%
Show the numbers
| Date | J.D. Vance | Marco Rubio | Ron DeSantis | Tucker Carlson | John McEntee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 43.4% | 23.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| August 20, 2026 | 47.3% | 22.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| August 27, 2026 | 47.3% | 19.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| September 3, 2026 | 53.0% | 17.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| September 10, 2026 | 50.2% | 18.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 0.1% |
| September 17, 2026 | 51.2% | 16.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 0.1% |
| September 24, 2026 | 51.1% | 15.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 0.1% |
| October 1, 2026 | 50.4% | 15.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 0.1% |
| October 8, 2026 | 48.5% | 15.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 0.1% |
| October 16, 2026 | 48.5% | 13.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 0.1% |
| October 25, 2026 | 44.3% | 15.4% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 0.1% |
| November 3, 2026 | 35.6% | 18.6% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 0.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 30.8% | 18.1% | 16.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 30.8% | 18.1% | 16.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for J.D. Vance in "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 31% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 31 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Marco Rubio in "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 18% as of November 11, 2026, down 4 points from a week earlier. A 18 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Ron DeSantis in "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 16% as of November 11, 2026, up 4 points from a week earlier. A 16 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.