Next French Presidential Election
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Marine Le Pen at 46%, ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 14%. $172M has traded across 46 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Marine Le Pen, +6 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Marine Le Pen 46%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14%
- David Lisnard 13%
- Édouard Philippe 9%
- Christine Lagarde 6%
Show the numbers
| Date | Marine Le Pen | Jean-Luc Mélenchon | David Lisnard | Édouard Philippe | Christine Lagarde |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 31.7% | 13.5% | 3.1% | 25.5% | 0.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 33.3% | 13.5% | 3.4% | 25.5% | 0.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 33.4% | 15.0% | 1.8% | 24.5% | 0.5% |
| September 3, 2026 | 34.9% | 13.5% | 2.5% | 27.5% | 0.5% |
| September 10, 2026 | 37.5% | 12.5% | 4.4% | 29.5% | 0.5% |
| September 17, 2026 | 36.0% | 12.5% | 7.4% | 24.5% | 0.5% |
| September 24, 2026 | 38.4% | 11.5% | 7.2% | 23.5% | 0.3% |
| October 1, 2026 | 43.1% | 13.5% | 7.6% | 19.5% | 0.4% |
| October 8, 2026 | 43.3% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 17.5% | 0.6% |
| October 16, 2026 | 46.3% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 18.5% | 0.8% |
| October 26, 2026 | 43.3% | 10.5% | 14.3% | 15.5% | 0.3% |
| November 4, 2026 | 39.9% | 12.5% | 14.8% | 11.5% | 7.6% |
| November 11, 2026 | 45.6% | 13.5% | 13.3% | 8.5% | 6.0% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Marine Le Pen in "Next French Presidential Election"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 46% as of November 11, 2026, up 6 points from a week earlier. A 46 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Jean-Luc Mélenchon in "Next French Presidential Election"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 14% as of November 11, 2026, up 1 points from a week earlier. A 14 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for David Lisnard in "Next French Presidential Election"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 13% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 13 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).