Presidential Election Winner 2028
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is JD Vance at 17%, ahead of Jon Ossoff at 17%. $738M has traded across 58 outcomes. The biggest move this week: JD Vance, +6 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- JD Vance 17%
- Jon Ossoff 17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 11%
- Marco Rubio 9%
- Gavin Newsom 8%
Show the numbers
| Date | JD Vance | Jon Ossoff | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Marco Rubio | Gavin Newsom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 23.1% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 9.6% |
| August 20, 2026 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 8.8% |
| August 27, 2026 | 24.1% | 10.0% | 14.1% | 10.7% | 8.6% |
| September 4, 2026 | 23.6% | 11.5% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% |
| September 11, 2026 | 24.3% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% |
| September 18, 2026 | 21.1% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 7.5% |
| September 25, 2026 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% |
| October 3, 2026 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% |
| October 10, 2026 | 19.1% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% |
| October 18, 2026 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 13.2% | 8.0% | 8.9% |
| October 27, 2026 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 11.6% |
| November 4, 2026 | 17.1% | 17.8% | 12.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% |
| November 11, 2026 | 17.3% | 17.3% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.0% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for JD Vance in "Presidential Election Winner 2028"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 17% as of November 11, 2026, up 6 points from a week earlier. A 17 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Jon Ossoff in "Presidential Election Winner 2028"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 17% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 17 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in "Presidential Election Winner 2028"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 11% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 11 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.