Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Jon Ossoff at 27%, ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 15%. $1.3B has traded across 57 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Gavin Newsom, −4 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Jon Ossoff 27%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 15%
- Gavin Newsom 11%
- Pete Buttigieg 5%
- Kamala Harris 5%
Show the numbers
| Date | Jon Ossoff | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | Gavin Newsom | Pete Buttigieg | Kamala Harris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 15.6% | 19.6% | 17.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% |
| August 20, 2026 | 13.7% | 18.1% | 15.3% | 5.3% | 7.4% |
| August 27, 2026 | 15.8% | 20.6% | 14.6% | 5.3% | 7.6% |
| September 4, 2026 | 15.8% | 20.0% | 14.1% | 5.6% | 7.8% |
| September 11, 2026 | 16.2% | 19.4% | 14.3% | 5.7% | 8.0% |
| September 18, 2026 | 16.4% | 18.6% | 16.0% | 5.5% | 9.7% |
| September 25, 2026 | 16.4% | 18.3% | 15.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% |
| October 3, 2026 | 15.4% | 16.8% | 16.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% |
| October 10, 2026 | 15.0% | 17.9% | 15.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% |
| October 18, 2026 | 14.3% | 16.6% | 15.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% |
| October 27, 2026 | 14.6% | 16.2% | 16.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% |
| November 5, 2026 | 26.1% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% |
| November 11, 2026 | 26.5% | 14.5% | 10.8% | 5.3% | 5.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Jon Ossoff in "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 27% as of November 11, 2026, up 0 points from a week earlier. A 27 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 15% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 15 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Gavin Newsom in "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 11% as of November 11, 2026, down 4 points from a week earlier. A 11 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.