US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is March 31 at 66%, ahead of December 31 at 35%. $51.6M has traded across 26 outcomes. The biggest move this week: November 30, −11 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- March 31 66%
- December 31 35%
- December 15 23%
- November 30 14%
- November 15 3%
Show the numbers
| Date | March 31 | December 31 | December 15 | November 30 | November 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 24, 2026 | 78.5% | 63.4% | 35.0% | 48.0% | 13.0% |
| September 28, 2026 | 72.0% | 54.4% | 35.0% | 35.5% | 13.0% |
| October 1, 2026 | 71.5% | 53.5% | 35.0% | 37.0% | 13.0% |
| October 5, 2026 | 72.5% | 51.3% | 35.0% | 34.5% | 13.0% |
| October 8, 2026 | 68.5% | 48.4% | 35.0% | 36.0% | 13.0% |
| October 12, 2026 | 66.0% | 44.5% | 35.0% | 27.5% | 13.0% |
| October 16, 2026 | 59.0% | 34.9% | 35.0% | 22.0% | 13.0% |
| October 20, 2026 | 66.5% | 37.8% | 35.0% | 23.5% | 13.0% |
| October 25, 2026 | 58.5% | 36.6% | 35.0% | 22.5% | 13.0% |
| October 29, 2026 | 59.0% | 39.5% | 35.0% | 26.5% | 19.0% |
| November 2, 2026 | 65.0% | 44.2% | 35.0% | 29.5% | 17.5% |
| November 6, 2026 | 71.5% | 41.5% | 35.0% | 20.5% | 6.5% |
| November 10, 2026 | 68.5% | 38.3% | 26.5% | 16.5% | 4.9% |
| November 11, 2026 | 65.5% | 34.6% | 22.5% | 13.5% | 3.3% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for March 31 in "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 66% as of November 11, 2026, up 2 points from a week earlier. A 66 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31 in "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 35% as of November 11, 2026, down 8 points from a week earlier. A 35 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 15 in "US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 22% as of November 11, 2026. A 22 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unan