Iran leader end of 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Mojtaba Khamenei at 94%, ahead of No Head of State at 2%. $41.0M has traded across 32 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Mojtaba Khamenei, +6 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Mojtaba Khamenei 94%
- No Head of State 2%
- Alireza Arafi 2%
- Reza Pahlavi 1%
- Masoud Pezeshkian 0.6%
Show the numbers
| Date | Mojtaba Khamenei | No Head of State | Alireza Arafi | Reza Pahlavi | Masoud Pezeshkian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 81.0% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| August 20, 2026 | 82.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| August 27, 2026 | 81.5% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| September 4, 2026 | 83.3% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| September 11, 2026 | 85.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| September 18, 2026 | 84.3% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| September 25, 2026 | 88.4% | 4.7% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 0.4% |
| October 3, 2026 | 87.5% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| October 10, 2026 | 87.5% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| October 18, 2026 | 87.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| October 27, 2026 | 85.5% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 0.3% |
| November 4, 2026 | 87.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 93.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Mojtaba Khamenei in "Iran leader end of 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 94% as of November 11, 2026, up 6 points from a week earlier. A 94 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for No Head of State in "Iran leader end of 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Alireza Arafi in "Iran leader end of 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without do