Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2026 at 5%. $3.5M has traded across 2 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2026 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 10.0% |
| August 20, 2026 | 9.0% |
| August 27, 2026 | 10.5% |
| September 3, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 10, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 17, 2026 | 7.0% |
| September 24, 2026 | 8.5% |
| October 1, 2026 | 4.7% |
| October 8, 2026 | 2.5% |
| October 17, 2026 | 4.7% |
| October 26, 2026 | 2.5% |
| November 5, 2026 | 3.3% |
| November 11, 2026 | 4.8% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31, 2026 in "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 5% as of November 11, 2026, up 2 points from a week earlier. A 5 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.