Politics / What the market thinks

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?" at 1%, down 1 points over the past week. $36.1M has traded on this market.

Polymarket data, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 04:27 UTC / $36.1M traded / $164 in the last 24 hours / closes January 1, 2027

Three months of it

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?: implied probability over 90 days0%3%5%8%10%Aug 13, 2026Sep 27, 2026Nov 11, 2026
The YES price moved from 4% to 1% over 90 days (−2 pts). High: 4% on August 13, 2026. Low: 1% on November 10, 2026.
Show the numbers
DateYes
August 13, 20263.8%
August 20, 20263.5%
August 27, 20263.8%
September 3, 20263.5%
September 10, 20263.4%
September 17, 20263.0%
September 24, 20262.6%
October 1, 20262.7%
October 8, 20262.1%
October 16, 20262.3%
October 25, 20262.5%
November 3, 20262.1%
November 10, 20261.4%
November 11, 20261.5%

Quick answers

What are the odds: Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Polymarket traders priced it at 1% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How this one gets decided

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

The market on Polymarket