Next James Bond actor?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Callum Turner at 32%, ahead of Jack Lowden at 29%. $2.4M has traded across 27 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Callum Turner, −28 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Callum Turner 32%
- Jack Lowden 29%
- Robert Pattinson 19%
- Josh O'Connor 9%
- No Bond chosen 8%
Show the numbers
| Date | Callum Turner | Jack Lowden | Robert Pattinson | Josh O'Connor | No Bond chosen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 16.0% | 11.7% | 0.1% | 4.0% | 18.9% |
| August 20, 2026 | 15.5% | 24.1% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 28.2% |
| August 26, 2026 | 17.0% | 27.8% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 19.7% |
| September 2, 2026 | 17.5% | 22.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 21.1% |
| September 9, 2026 | 10.0% | 40.2% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 20.6% |
| September 16, 2026 | 14.6% | 32.7% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 21.8% |
| September 22, 2026 | 28.8% | 35.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 21.3% |
| September 29, 2026 | 12.2% | 46.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 32.4% |
| October 6, 2026 | 23.6% | 37.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 18.9% |
| October 14, 2026 | 13.4% | 32.5% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 23.1% |
| October 23, 2026 | 19.7% | 40.4% | 0.1% | 11.4% | 18.1% |
| November 3, 2026 | 70.9% | 11.6% | 0.1% | 6.4% | 10.0% |
| November 10, 2026 | 30.5% | 30.9% | 17.0% | 12.6% | 6.6% |
| November 11, 2026 | 32.4% | 28.8% | 19.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Callum Turner in "Next James Bond actor?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 32% as of November 11, 2026, down 28 points from a week earlier. A 32 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Jack Lowden in "Next James Bond actor?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 29% as of November 11, 2026, up 18 points from a week earlier. A 29 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Robert Pattinson in "Next James Bond actor?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 19% as of November 11, 2026. A 19 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.