US strike on Mexico by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 2%. $3.5M has traded across 3 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 12.0% |
| August 20, 2026 | 11.0% |
| August 26, 2026 | 13.5% |
| September 2, 2026 | 10.5% |
| September 9, 2026 | 9.5% |
| September 16, 2026 | 7.5% |
| September 22, 2026 | 9.5% |
| September 29, 2026 | 8.5% |
| October 6, 2026 | 3.9% |
| October 14, 2026 | 3.3% |
| October 24, 2026 | 3.7% |
| November 3, 2026 | 3.7% |
| November 11, 2026 | 2.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31 in "US strike on Mexico by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary r