Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?" at 3%, down 1 points over the past week. $1.9M has traded on this market.
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 23.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 17.0% |
| August 27, 2026 | 14.0% |
| September 4, 2026 | 13.5% |
| September 11, 2026 | 16.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 13.5% |
| September 25, 2026 | 8.5% |
| October 3, 2026 | 5.5% |
| October 10, 2026 | 6.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 6.5% |
| October 27, 2026 | 10.5% |
| November 4, 2026 | 3.8% |
| November 11, 2026 | 2.9% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds: Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 3% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 3 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.