Next Prime Minister of Spain?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Alberto Núñez Feijóo at 93%, ahead of Pedro Sánchez at 6%. $3.3M has traded across 20 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Alberto Núñez Feijóo, +8 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Alberto Núñez Feijóo 93%
- Pedro Sánchez 6%
- Santiago Abascal 0.9%
- Isabel Díaz Ayuso 0.1%
- María Jesús Montero 0.1%
Show the numbers
| Date | Alberto Núñez Feijóo | Pedro Sánchez | Santiago Abascal | Isabel Díaz Ayuso | María Jesús Montero |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 80.5% | 12.9% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 0.1% |
| August 20, 2026 | 79.5% | 11.3% | 6.1% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| August 27, 2026 | 79.5% | 14.1% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| September 4, 2026 | 79.5% | 10.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 0.1% |
| September 11, 2026 | 79.5% | 13.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 0.1% |
| September 18, 2026 | 78.5% | 14.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| September 25, 2026 | 78.5% | 14.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 0.1% |
| October 3, 2026 | 81.5% | 13.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| October 10, 2026 | 81.5% | 17.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 18, 2026 | 81.5% | 15.8% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| October 27, 2026 | 82.0% | 16.3% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| November 4, 2026 | 85.0% | 12.3% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 92.5% | 6.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Alberto Núñez Feijóo in "Next Prime Minister of Spain?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 93% as of November 11, 2026, up 8 points from a week earlier. A 93 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Pedro Sánchez in "Next Prime Minister of Spain?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 6% as of November 11, 2026, down 6 points from a week earlier. A 6 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Santiago Abascal in "Next Prime Minister of Spain?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.9% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.