Argentina Presidential Election Winner
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Javier Milei at 44%, ahead of Axel Kicillof at 34%. $1.5M has traded across 21 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Axel Kicillof, +3 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Javier Milei 44%
- Axel Kicillof 34%
- Sergio Massa 14%
- Patricia Bullrich 4%
- Myriam Bregman 2%
Show the numbers
| Date | Javier Milei | Axel Kicillof | Sergio Massa | Patricia Bullrich | Myriam Bregman |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 54.5% | 37.5% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| August 20, 2026 | 50.5% | 40.5% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| August 27, 2026 | 52.0% | 41.5% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| September 4, 2026 | 52.5% | 37.5% | 7.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| September 11, 2026 | 53.5% | 34.5% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 2.9% |
| September 18, 2026 | 52.5% | 36.5% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| September 25, 2026 | 55.5% | 33.5% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| October 3, 2026 | 53.5% | 22.0% | 6.7% | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| October 10, 2026 | 56.5% | 32.5% | 7.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| October 18, 2026 | 48.5% | 29.5% | 14.5% | 1.9% | 1.5% |
| October 27, 2026 | 46.5% | 29.5% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 1.8% |
| November 4, 2026 | 45.5% | 30.5% | 15.0% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| November 11, 2026 | 43.5% | 33.5% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Javier Milei in "Argentina Presidential Election Winner"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 44% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 44 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Axel Kicillof in "Argentina Presidential Election Winner"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 34% as of November 11, 2026, up 3 points from a week earlier. A 34 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Sergio Massa in "Argentina Presidential Election Winner"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 14% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 14 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).