Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is June 30, 2027 at 54%, ahead of March 31, 2027 at 33%. $2.3M has traded across 9 outcomes. The biggest move this week: December 31, −3 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- June 30, 2027 54%
- March 31, 2027 33%
- December 31 6%
- November 30 2%
Show the numbers
| Date | June 30, 2027 | March 31, 2027 | December 31 | November 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 3, 2026 | 50.0% | 38.0% | 20.5% | 10.5% |
| October 6, 2026 | 56.0% | 40.5% | 13.5% | 7.5% |
| October 9, 2026 | 58.0% | 42.0% | 15.0% | 8.0% |
| October 12, 2026 | 60.5% | 37.5% | 16.5% | 9.5% |
| October 16, 2026 | 57.0% | 38.0% | 13.5% | 5.0% |
| October 19, 2026 | 58.0% | 39.0% | 11.0% | 2.6% |
| October 23, 2026 | 58.5% | 38.5% | 13.0% | 7.2% |
| October 27, 2026 | 57.5% | 35.5% | 12.5% | 7.2% |
| October 31, 2026 | 61.5% | 37.5% | 10.5% | 4.7% |
| November 3, 2026 | 52.0% | 30.5% | 7.5% | 4.7% |
| November 6, 2026 | 56.5% | 34.5% | 7.5% | 4.1% |
| November 9, 2026 | 56.0% | 30.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% |
| November 11, 2026 | 54.0% | 32.5% | 6.0% | 2.4% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for June 30, 2027 in "Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 54% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 54 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for March 31, 2027 in "Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 33% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 33 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 6% as of November 11, 2026, down 3 points from a week earlier. A 6 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qua