Ukraine election held by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2026 at 2%. $2.5M has traded across 3 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2026 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 6.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 5.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 5.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 4.5% |
| September 11, 2026 | 4.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 1.9% |
| September 25, 2026 | 1.5% |
| October 3, 2026 | 1.6% |
| October 10, 2026 | 2.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 3.8% |
| October 27, 2026 | 4.7% |
| November 4, 2026 | 2.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 2.4% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31, 2026 in "Ukraine election held by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.