Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" at 2%, down 1 points over the past week. $3.7M has traded on this market.
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 9.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 6.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 7.0% |
| September 3, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 10, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 17, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 24, 2026 | 5.5% |
| October 1, 2026 | 5.5% |
| October 8, 2026 | 5.5% |
| October 16, 2026 | 6.5% |
| October 25, 2026 | 5.5% |
| November 3, 2026 | 3.5% |
| November 10, 2026 | 2.2% |
| November 11, 2026 | 2.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds: Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.