Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Avengers: Doomsday at 77%, ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 22%. $2.7M has traded across 12 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Avengers: Doomsday, +25 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Avengers: Doomsday 77%
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day 22%
- The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 0.1%
- Dune: Messiah 0.1%
Show the numbers
| Date | Avengers: Doomsday | Spider-Man: Brand New Day | The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | Dune: Messiah |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 29.5% | 69.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| August 20, 2026 | 33.5% | 63.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| August 27, 2026 | 58.5% | 37.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| September 4, 2026 | 56.5% | 45.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 11, 2026 | 47.0% | 46.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 18, 2026 | 51.5% | 44.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 25, 2026 | 45.5% | 55.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 3, 2026 | 37.5% | 63.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 10, 2026 | 47.0% | 53.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 18, 2026 | 56.5% | 44.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 27, 2026 | 61.5% | 35.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| November 4, 2026 | 53.0% | 44.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 77.0% | 21.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Avengers: Doomsday in "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 77% as of November 11, 2026, up 25 points from a week earlier. A 77 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Spider-Man: Brand New Day in "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 22% as of November 11, 2026, down 21 points from a week earlier. A 22 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping in "Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.1% as of November 11, 2026. A 0 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie with the highest domestic 3-day opening weekend gross among all movies in 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant final (i.e., not studio estimates) 3-day opening weekend figures are available, and no later than January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. For each movie, the primary resolution source is the opening weekend figure in the "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on that movie's The Numbers page, accessible via https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026. If The Numbers does not have a final figure for a movie by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, that movie's "Weekend" figure for its first 3-day weekend on the "Domestic Weekend" tab of its Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/) release page will be used. Movies will be ranked by domestic 3-day opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' titles. This market will resolve to the movie in 1st place after applying this ranking. This market will resolve according to the figures for each movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or