Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" at 8%, down 8 points over the past week. $79.6M has traded on this market. The biggest move this week: the YES price, −8 pts.
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 17.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 16.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 12.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 14.5% |
| September 11, 2026 | 16.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 16.5% |
| September 25, 2026 | 14.5% |
| October 3, 2026 | 16.5% |
| October 10, 2026 | 15.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 15.5% |
| October 26, 2026 | 18.5% |
| November 3, 2026 | 17.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 7.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 8% as of November 11, 2026, down 8 points from a week earlier. A 8 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.