Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2026 at 2%. $5.6M has traded across 4 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2026 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 5.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 5.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 7.5% |
| September 11, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 5.5% |
| September 25, 2026 | 5.5% |
| October 3, 2026 | 5.5% |
| October 10, 2026 | 5.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 5.0% |
| October 27, 2026 | 4.5% |
| November 4, 2026 | 2.6% |
| November 11, 2026 | 2.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31, 2026 in "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.