Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is 1 at 92%, ahead of 2 at 10%. $3.9M has traded across 6 outcomes. The biggest move this week: 1, +5 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- 1 92%
- 2 10%
- 4 0.1%
- 5 0.1%
- 3 0.1%
Show the numbers
| Date | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 68.5% | 29.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.8% |
| August 20, 2026 | 76.5% | 21.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 2.1% |
| August 27, 2026 | 74.0% | 22.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 2.1% |
| September 4, 2026 | 78.5% | 18.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 2.4% |
| September 11, 2026 | 76.0% | 21.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 2.1% |
| September 18, 2026 | 73.5% | 23.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| September 25, 2026 | 71.5% | 24.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| October 3, 2026 | 73.5% | 24.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| October 10, 2026 | 57.5% | 39.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 18, 2026 | 79.0% | 19.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| October 27, 2026 | 88.5% | 11.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| November 4, 2026 | 87.0% | 7.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 91.5% | 9.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for 1 in "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 92% as of November 11, 2026, up 5 points from a week earlier. A 92 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for 2 in "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 10% as of November 11, 2026, up 2 points from a week earlier. A 10 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for 4 in "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.2% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 0 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.