Sports / What the market thinks

F1 Constructors' Champion

As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Mercedes at 100%. $29.3M has traded across 11 outcomes.

Polymarket data, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 04:27 UTC / $29.3M traded / $149 in the last 24 hours / closes April 1, 2027

The field

Three months of it

F1 Constructors' Champion: implied probability over 90 days0%25%50%75%100%Aug 13, 2026Sep 27, 2026Nov 11, 2026
Mercedes moved from 84% to 100% over 90 days (+16 pts). High: 100% on November 9, 2026. Low: 83% on August 23, 2026.
Show the numbers
DateMercedes
August 13, 202683.5%
August 20, 202685.5%
August 26, 202686.5%
September 2, 202691.5%
September 9, 202696.0%
September 16, 202696.4%
September 22, 202696.2%
September 29, 202696.9%
October 6, 202698.9%
October 14, 202699.4%
October 24, 202698.6%
November 3, 202699.9%
November 11, 2026100.0%

Quick answers

What are the odds for Mercedes in "F1 Constructors' Champion"?
Polymarket traders priced it at 100% as of November 11, 2026, up 0 points from a week earlier. A 100 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How this one gets decided

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.” If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

The market on Polymarket