Politics / What the market thinks

Lai Ching-te impeached by...?

As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 5%. $1.4M has traded across 2 outcomes. The biggest move this week: December 31, −7 pts.

Polymarket data, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 04:27 UTC / $1.4M traded / $0 in the last 24 hours / closes January 1, 2027

The field

Three months of it

Lai Ching-te impeached by...?: implied probability over 90 days0%13%25%38%50%Aug 13, 2026Sep 27, 2026Nov 11, 2026
December 31 moved from 3% to 22% over 90 days (+19 pts). High: 36% on November 2, 2026. Low: 3% on September 20, 2026.
Show the numbers
DateDecember 31
August 13, 20263.3%
August 20, 20263.3%
August 27, 20263.4%
September 3, 20263.0%
September 10, 20262.9%
September 17, 20262.9%
September 24, 20262.9%
October 1, 20263.3%
October 8, 20262.8%
October 16, 20262.8%
October 25, 20263.1%
November 3, 202630.0%
November 11, 202622.1%

Quick answers

What are the odds for December 31 in "Lai Ching-te impeached by...?"?
Polymarket traders priced it at 5% as of November 11, 2026, down 7 points from a week earlier. A 5 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How this one gets decided

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

The market on Polymarket