Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" at 9%, down 2 points over the past week. $17.6M has traded on this market.
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 45.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 34.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 32.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 27.5% |
| September 11, 2026 | 16.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 17.5% |
| September 25, 2026 | 27.5% |
| October 3, 2026 | 20.5% |
| October 10, 2026 | 17.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 11.5% |
| October 27, 2026 | 11.5% |
| November 4, 2026 | 10.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 8.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 9% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 9 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.