Politics / What the market thinks

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 4%. $2.1M has traded across 6 outcomes.

Polymarket data, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 04:27 UTC / $2.1M traded / $641 in the last 24 hours / closes January 1, 2027

The field

Three months of it

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?: implied probability over 90 days0%6%13%19%25%Aug 13, 2026Sep 27, 2026Nov 11, 2026
December 31 moved from 6% to 4% over 90 days (−2 pts). High: 12% on August 22, 2026. Low: 2% on October 15, 2026.
Show the numbers
DateDecember 31
August 13, 20265.7%
August 20, 20265.2%
August 27, 20266.0%
September 3, 20265.1%
September 10, 20262.8%
September 17, 20262.4%
September 24, 20266.5%
October 1, 20264.0%
October 8, 20262.1%
October 16, 20262.2%
October 26, 20263.1%
November 5, 20263.5%
November 11, 20263.9%

Quick answers

What are the odds for December 31 in "Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?"?
Polymarket traders priced it at 4% as of November 11, 2026, up 1 points from a week earlier. A 4 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How this one gets decided

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, (49.713460° N, 37.614763° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevan

The market on Polymarket