Next leader out of power before 2027?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is None before 2027 at 51%, ahead of Netanyahu - Israel PM at 35%. $2.7M has traded across 22 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Netanyahu - Israel PM, +22 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- None before 2027 51%
- Netanyahu - Israel PM 36%
- Sánchez - Spanish PM 5%
- Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 3%
- Lecornu - France PM 3%
Show the numbers
| Date | None before 2027 | Netanyahu - Israel PM | Sánchez - Spanish PM | Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | Lecornu - France PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 33.5% | 43.0% | 2.9% | 7.5% | 3.4% |
| August 20, 2026 | 34.0% | 37.0% | 1.6% | 7.8% | 1.7% |
| August 27, 2026 | 34.5% | 40.5% | 2.5% | 7.3% | 1.3% |
| September 3, 2026 | 38.5% | 37.0% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
| September 10, 2026 | 35.5% | 35.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 0.9% |
| September 17, 2026 | 32.5% | 29.5% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
| September 24, 2026 | 38.5% | 30.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 12.1% |
| October 1, 2026 | 27.5% | 36.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 14.0% |
| October 8, 2026 | 38.5% | 26.5% | 16.7% | 0.9% | 6.2% |
| October 16, 2026 | 47.5% | 27.5% | 8.6% | 1.5% | 4.9% |
| October 25, 2026 | 46.5% | 31.0% | 6.3% | 0.5% | 5.1% |
| November 3, 2026 | 62.5% | 14.0% | 7.8% | 0.9% | 3.6% |
| November 11, 2026 | 51.5% | 36.0% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 51.0% | 36.0% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for None before 2027 in "Next leader out of power before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 51% as of November 11, 2026, down 10 points from a week earlier. A 51 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Netanyahu - Israel PM in "Next leader out of power before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 35% as of November 11, 2026, up 22 points from a week earlier. A 35 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Sánchez - Spanish PM in "Next leader out of power before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 5% as of November 11, 2026, down 7 points from a week earlier. A 5 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.