Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" at 1%, unchanged over the past week. $46.2M has traded on this market.
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 3.8% |
| August 20, 2026 | 3.9% |
| August 27, 2026 | 4.0% |
| September 4, 2026 | 3.6% |
| September 11, 2026 | 4.0% |
| September 18, 2026 | 3.9% |
| September 25, 2026 | 3.6% |
| October 3, 2026 | 2.5% |
| October 10, 2026 | 2.3% |
| October 18, 2026 | 2.1% |
| October 27, 2026 | 1.9% |
| November 4, 2026 | 1.8% |
| November 11, 2026 | 1.3% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds: Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 1% as of November 11, 2026, down 0 points from a week earlier. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.