Iran Nuke before 2027?
As of November 11, 2026, Polymarket traders put the chance of "Iran Nuke before 2027?" at 3%, down 1 points over the past week. $1.6M has traded on this market.
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | Yes |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 4.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 4.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 5.3% |
| September 3, 2026 | 4.3% |
| September 10, 2026 | 5.0% |
| September 17, 2026 | 5.3% |
| September 24, 2026 | 4.3% |
| October 1, 2026 | 4.0% |
| October 8, 2026 | 3.5% |
| October 16, 2026 | 4.1% |
| October 25, 2026 | 4.0% |
| November 3, 2026 | 3.8% |
| November 11, 2026 | 3.3% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds: Iran Nuke before 2027?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 3% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 3 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".