Venezuela leader end of 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Nicolás Maduro at 92%, ahead of Delcy Rodríguez at 7%. $100M has traded across 16 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Nicolás Maduro, +5 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Nicolás Maduro 92%
- Delcy Rodríguez 7%
- No Head of State 0.4%
- Edmundo González 0.1%
- María Corina Machado 0.1%
Show the numbers
| Date | Nicolás Maduro | Delcy Rodríguez | No Head of State | Edmundo González | María Corina Machado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 82.0% | 9.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 2.1% |
| August 20, 2026 | 82.3% | 9.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 2.5% |
| August 26, 2026 | 86.3% | 9.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 2.4% |
| September 2, 2026 | 84.3% | 10.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 1.8% |
| September 9, 2026 | 82.7% | 10.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.7% |
| September 16, 2026 | 83.0% | 12.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| September 22, 2026 | 58.4% | 41.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 29, 2026 | 64.7% | 27.5% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| October 6, 2026 | 71.8% | 24.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.9% |
| October 14, 2026 | 71.4% | 23.5% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| October 23, 2026 | 76.0% | 17.5% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| November 3, 2026 | 85.0% | 10.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| November 10, 2026 | 93.0% | 6.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 92.3% | 7.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Nicolás Maduro in "Venezuela leader end of 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 92% as of November 11, 2026, up 5 points from a week earlier. A 92 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Delcy Rodríguez in "Venezuela leader end of 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 7% as of November 11, 2026, down 4 points from a week earlier. A 7 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for No Head of State in "Venezuela leader end of 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.4% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 0 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective;