Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Somaliland at 10%, ahead of Qatar at 5%. $1.9M has traded across 12 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Jordan, −4 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Somaliland 10%
- Qatar 5%
- Jordan 5%
- Syria 5%
- Egypt 4%
Show the numbers
| Date | Somaliland | Qatar | Jordan | Syria | Egypt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 15.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% |
| August 20, 2026 | 16.0% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% |
| August 27, 2026 | 16.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% |
| September 4, 2026 | 8.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% |
| September 11, 2026 | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% |
| September 18, 2026 | 8.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% |
| September 25, 2026 | 8.0% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% |
| October 3, 2026 | 7.0% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% |
| October 10, 2026 | 17.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% |
| October 18, 2026 | 11.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| October 27, 2026 | 11.0% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| November 4, 2026 | 11.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% |
| November 11, 2026 | 9.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Somaliland in "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 10% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 10 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Qatar in "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 5% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 5 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Jordan in "Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 5% as of November 11, 2026, down 4 points from a week earlier. A 5 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.