Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 2%. $78.5M has traded across 7 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 4.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 3.6% |
| August 27, 2026 | 3.9% |
| September 4, 2026 | 3.8% |
| September 11, 2026 | 3.3% |
| September 18, 2026 | 4.7% |
| September 25, 2026 | 3.5% |
| October 3, 2026 | 2.8% |
| October 10, 2026 | 3.0% |
| October 18, 2026 | 5.1% |
| October 27, 2026 | 4.0% |
| November 4, 2026 | 2.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 1.7% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.