Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2026 at 38%, ahead of November 30, 2026 at 19%. $2.0M has traded across 6 outcomes. The biggest move this week: November 30, 2026, −7 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- December 31, 2026 38%
- November 30, 2026 19%
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2026 | November 30, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| September 23, 2026 | 69.0% | 43.5% |
| September 26, 2026 | 60.5% | 43.5% |
| September 30, 2026 | 64.0% | 43.5% |
| October 4, 2026 | 47.5% | 34.5% |
| October 8, 2026 | 46.0% | 34.0% |
| October 11, 2026 | 42.5% | 29.0% |
| October 15, 2026 | 37.5% | 25.0% |
| October 20, 2026 | 41.5% | 25.5% |
| October 25, 2026 | 33.5% | 25.5% |
| October 30, 2026 | 45.0% | 26.5% |
| November 3, 2026 | 43.5% | 29.5% |
| November 7, 2026 | 44.0% | 25.0% |
| November 11, 2026 | 38.0% | 18.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 38.0% | 18.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31, 2026 in "Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 38% as of November 11, 2026, up 2 points from a week earlier. A 38 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for November 30, 2026 in "Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 19% as of November 11, 2026, down 7 points from a week earlier. A 19 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon). This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presid