Iran leadership change by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is June 30, 2027 at 20%, ahead of December 31 at 7%. $29.7M has traded across 14 outcomes. The biggest move this week: June 30, 2027, −7 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- June 30, 2027 20%
- December 31 7%
- November 30 3%
Show the numbers
| Date | June 30, 2027 | December 31 | November 30 |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 24.5% | 18.0% | 13.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 25.5% | 15.5% | 9.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 24.5% | 17.5% | 10.5% |
| September 3, 2026 | 25.5% | 15.5% | 8.5% |
| September 10, 2026 | 27.5% | 13.5% | 8.5% |
| September 17, 2026 | 26.5% | 14.5% | 8.5% |
| September 24, 2026 | 26.0% | 14.5% | 6.5% |
| October 1, 2026 | 24.5% | 12.5% | 6.5% |
| October 8, 2026 | 22.5% | 11.5% | 6.5% |
| October 16, 2026 | 23.5% | 12.5% | 6.5% |
| October 25, 2026 | 24.5% | 14.5% | 8.5% |
| November 3, 2026 | 26.0% | 13.5% | 7.5% |
| November 10, 2026 | 22.5% | 7.5% | 2.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 2.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for June 30, 2027 in "Iran leadership change by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 20% as of November 11, 2026, down 7 points from a week earlier. A 20 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Iran leadership change by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 7% as of November 11, 2026, down 5 points from a week earlier. A 7 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for November 30 in "Iran leadership change by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 3% as of November 11, 2026, down 3 points from a week earlier. A 3 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.