Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 2%. $7.9M has traded across 3 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 3.3% |
| August 20, 2026 | 3.5% |
| August 26, 2026 | 3.6% |
| September 2, 2026 | 3.9% |
| September 9, 2026 | 2.3% |
| September 16, 2026 | 2.9% |
| September 22, 2026 | 2.5% |
| September 29, 2026 | 2.6% |
| October 6, 2026 | 3.1% |
| October 14, 2026 | 2.5% |
| October 24, 2026 | 2.3% |
| November 3, 2026 | 3.9% |
| November 11, 2026 | 1.6% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.