US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is November 30 at 93%, ahead of December 31 at 86%. $2.6M has traded across 11 outcomes. The biggest move this week: December 31, +23 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- November 30 93%
- December 31 86%
Show the numbers
| Date | November 30 | December 31 |
|---|---|---|
| October 13, 2026 | 58.5% | 49.5% |
| October 16, 2026 | 75.5% | 49.5% |
| October 19, 2026 | 80.0% | 49.5% |
| October 21, 2026 | 77.0% | 49.5% |
| October 23, 2026 | 78.5% | 49.5% |
| October 26, 2026 | 80.0% | 49.5% |
| October 29, 2026 | 83.5% | 49.5% |
| October 31, 2026 | 85.0% | 50.0% |
| November 2, 2026 | 87.5% | 79.0% |
| November 5, 2026 | 91.5% | 78.5% |
| November 7, 2026 | 90.5% | 84.0% |
| November 9, 2026 | 90.0% | 85.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 93.0% | 86.0% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for November 30 in "US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 93% as of November 11, 2026, up 7 points from a week earlier. A 93 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31 in "US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 86% as of November 11, 2026, up 23 points from a week earlier. A 86 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; H