Politics / What the market thinks

France declares state of emergency by...?

As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 3%. $2.8M has traded across 3 outcomes. The biggest move this week: December 31, −4 pts.

Polymarket data, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 04:27 UTC / $2.8M traded / $790 in the last 24 hours / closes January 1, 2027

The field

Three months of it

France declares state of emergency by...?: implied probability over 90 days0%6%13%19%25%Oct 19, 2026Oct 30, 2026Nov 11, 2026
December 31 moved from 16% to 3% over 23 days (−13 pts). High: 23% on October 19, 2026. Low: 2% on November 10, 2026.
Show the numbers
DateDecember 31
October 19, 202615.5%
October 20, 202610.0%
October 23, 202618.5%
October 25, 20269.5%
October 28, 20266.5%
October 30, 20267.5%
November 1, 20267.5%
November 3, 20267.0%
November 4, 20266.5%
November 6, 20263.4%
November 8, 20263.2%
November 10, 20262.7%
November 11, 20262.9%

Quick answers

What are the odds for December 31 in "France declares state of emergency by...?"?
Polymarket traders priced it at 3% as of November 11, 2026, down 4 points from a week earlier. A 3 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How this one gets decided

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The prima

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