Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 4%. $18.6M has traded across 7 outcomes. The biggest move this week: December 31, −4 pts.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 7.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 7.5% |
| August 26, 2026 | 7.5% |
| September 2, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 9, 2026 | 6.5% |
| September 16, 2026 | 7.5% |
| September 22, 2026 | 7.0% |
| September 29, 2026 | 7.0% |
| October 6, 2026 | 7.5% |
| October 14, 2026 | 6.5% |
| October 23, 2026 | 5.5% |
| November 2, 2026 | 5.0% |
| November 10, 2026 | 3.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 3.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 4% as of November 11, 2026, down 4 points from a week earlier. A 4 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the l