Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is 44 at 99%, ahead of 45 at 0.9%. $1.0M has traded across 9 outcomes. The biggest move this week: 44, +38 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- 44 99%
- 45 0.9%
- 46 0.1%
Show the numbers
| Date | 44 | 45 | 46 |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 23, 2026 | 16.5% | 18.5% | 15.5% |
| October 25, 2026 | 8.0% | 4.4% | 16.0% |
| October 28, 2026 | 13.5% | 9.1% | 11.0% |
| October 29, 2026 | 9.5% | 9.4% | 13.5% |
| November 1, 2026 | 8.5% | 10.3% | 13.5% |
| November 2, 2026 | 5.0% | 9.1% | 17.5% |
| November 3, 2026 | 6.5% | 11.2% | 17.5% |
| November 5, 2026 | 92.7% | 5.5% | 0.6% |
| November 6, 2026 | 96.9% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| November 8, 2026 | 98.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| November 9, 2026 | 98.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| November 10, 2026 | 98.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| November 11, 2026 | 99.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for 44 in "Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 99% as of November 11, 2026, up 38 points from a week earlier. A 99 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for 45 in "Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.9% as of November 11, 2026, down 34 points from a week earlier. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for 46 in "Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.1% as of November 11, 2026, down 2 points from a week earlier. A 0 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the elec