How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is 4 at 81%, ahead of 5 at 9%. $7.8M has traded across 16 outcomes. The biggest move this week: 4, +8 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- 4 81%
- 5 9%
- 6 3%
- 7 1%
- 10 0.9%
Show the numbers
| Date | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 57.3% | 30.5% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| August 20, 2026 | 78.7% | 16.2% | 6.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| August 27, 2026 | 84.0% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| September 3, 2026 | 76.1% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| September 10, 2026 | 86.4% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| September 17, 2026 | 75.8% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| September 24, 2026 | 76.6% | 14.1% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| October 1, 2026 | 78.1% | 10.1% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| October 8, 2026 | 72.0% | 13.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| October 16, 2026 | 57.4% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| October 25, 2026 | 67.0% | 19.9% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| November 4, 2026 | 73.7% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| November 11, 2026 | 80.5% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.9% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for 4 in "How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 81% as of November 11, 2026, up 8 points from a week earlier. A 81 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for 5 in "How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 9% as of November 11, 2026, down 6 points from a week earlier. A 9 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for 6 in "How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 3% as of November 11, 2026, up 0 points from a week earlier. A 3 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursio