Politics / What the market thinks

Satoshi's identity be proven by...?

As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 2%. $2.0M has traded across 4 outcomes.

Polymarket data, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 04:27 UTC / $2.0M traded / $0 in the last 24 hours / closes January 1, 2027

The field

Three months of it

Satoshi's identity be proven by...?: implied probability over 90 days0%3%5%8%10%Aug 13, 2026Sep 27, 2026Nov 11, 2026
December 31 moved from 3% to 2% over 90 days (−2 pts). High: 3% on August 13, 2026. Low: 2% on November 5, 2026.
Show the numbers
DateDecember 31
August 13, 20263.3%
August 20, 20262.9%
August 26, 20262.9%
September 2, 20262.8%
September 9, 20262.4%
September 16, 20262.6%
September 22, 20262.1%
September 29, 20262.3%
October 6, 20262.3%
October 14, 20262.3%
October 23, 20262.5%
November 2, 20262.0%
November 10, 20261.8%
November 11, 20261.8%

Quick answers

What are the odds for December 31 in "Satoshi's identity be proven by...?"?
Polymarket traders priced it at 2% as of November 11, 2026, down 1 points from a week earlier. A 2 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
How are these odds calculated?
They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.

How this one gets decided

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.

The market on Polymarket