US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31 at 3%. $29.8M has traded across 7 outcomes. The biggest move this week: December 31, −4 pts.
The field
Three months of it
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31 |
|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 7.5% |
| August 20, 2026 | 6.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 5.5% |
| September 4, 2026 | 4.5% |
| September 11, 2026 | 5.5% |
| September 18, 2026 | 5.5% |
| September 25, 2026 | 6.5% |
| October 3, 2026 | 5.5% |
| October 10, 2026 | 5.5% |
| October 18, 2026 | 3.1% |
| October 26, 2026 | 3.3% |
| November 3, 2026 | 6.2% |
| November 11, 2026 | 2.8% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31 in "US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 3% as of November 11, 2026, down 4 points from a week earlier. A 3 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.