Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is March 31 at 15%, ahead of December 31 at 6%. $1.4M has traded across 8 outcomes.
The field
Three months of it
- March 31 15%
- December 31 6%
Show the numbers
| Date | March 31 | December 31 |
|---|---|---|
| September 17, 2026 | 47.5% | 13.0% |
| September 21, 2026 | 23.0% | 14.5% |
| September 25, 2026 | 25.0% | 11.5% |
| September 29, 2026 | 20.0% | 13.0% |
| October 4, 2026 | 22.0% | 7.5% |
| October 8, 2026 | 22.0% | 4.5% |
| October 12, 2026 | 22.5% | 5.0% |
| October 17, 2026 | 22.0% | 5.5% |
| October 22, 2026 | 19.5% | 7.5% |
| October 28, 2026 | 18.0% | 5.5% |
| November 2, 2026 | 13.5% | 8.0% |
| November 6, 2026 | 18.5% | 6.0% |
| November 11, 2026 | 15.0% | 6.0% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for March 31 in "Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 15% as of November 11, 2026. A 15 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31 in "Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 6% as of November 11, 2026. A 6 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.