US imports Russian diesel by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is March 31 at 13%, ahead of January 31 at 12%. $1.5M has traded across 7 outcomes. The biggest move this week: November 15, −17 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- March 31 13%
- January 31 12%
- December 31 10%
- November 30 7%
- November 15 1%
Show the numbers
| Date | March 31 | January 31 | December 31 | November 30 | November 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31, 2026 | 48.5% | 66.0% | 62.0% | 52.0% | 41.0% |
| November 1, 2026 | 70.0% | 65.0% | 62.5% | 49.5% | 37.5% |
| November 2, 2026 | 70.5% | 69.0% | 62.0% | 55.0% | 37.5% |
| November 3, 2026 | 67.0% | 64.5% | 57.5% | 55.5% | 35.0% |
| November 4, 2026 | 26.0% | 25.5% | 25.5% | 18.0% | 18.5% |
| November 5, 2026 | 22.0% | 18.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 11.0% |
| November 6, 2026 | 22.0% | 18.0% | 16.5% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| November 7, 2026 | 19.0% | 16.5% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 6.0% |
| November 8, 2026 | 32.0% | 27.5% | 26.0% | 22.0% | 7.3% |
| November 9, 2026 | 27.0% | 25.0% | 24.0% | 17.5% | 7.2% |
| November 10, 2026 | 13.0% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 5.3% | 1.8% |
| November 11, 2026 | 13.0% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 1.4% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for March 31 in "US imports Russian diesel by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 13% as of November 11, 2026, down 13 points from a week earlier. A 13 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for January 31 in "US imports Russian diesel by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 12% as of November 11, 2026, down 14 points from a week earlier. A 12 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31 in "US imports Russian diesel by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 10% as of November 11, 2026, down 16 points from a week earlier. A 10 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026