Alaska Senate Election Winner
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Mary Peltola (D) at 99%, ahead of Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) at 0.9%. $8.4M has traded across 7 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Mary Peltola (D), +6 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Mary Peltola (D) 99%
- Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) 0.9%
- Ann Diener 0.1%
- Dustin Darden 0.1%
- Richard Grayson 0.1%
Show the numbers
| Date | Mary Peltola (D) | Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) | Ann Diener | Dustin Darden | Richard Grayson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 51.0% | 48.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| August 20, 2026 | 56.0% | 44.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| August 27, 2026 | 61.5% | 39.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 4, 2026 | 63.5% | 36.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 11, 2026 | 66.5% | 34.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 18, 2026 | 67.5% | 32.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| September 25, 2026 | 72.5% | 28.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 3, 2026 | 71.5% | 28.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 10, 2026 | 73.5% | 26.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 18, 2026 | 73.5% | 25.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| October 27, 2026 | 73.5% | 25.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| November 4, 2026 | 84.5% | 15.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| November 11, 2026 | 98.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Mary Peltola (D) in "Alaska Senate Election Winner"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 99% as of November 11, 2026, up 6 points from a week earlier. A 99 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in "Alaska Senate Election Winner"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.9% as of November 11, 2026, down 5 points from a week earlier. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Ann Diener in "Alaska Senate Election Winner"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 0.1% as of November 11, 2026. A 0 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.