Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is Howard Lutnick at 24%, ahead of Kristi Noem at 19%. $2.4M has traded across 21 outcomes. The biggest move this week: Russell Vought, −26 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- Howard Lutnick 24%
- Kristi Noem 19%
- Pete Hegseth 14%
- Markwayne Mullin 11%
- Marco Rubio 10%
Show the numbers
| Date | Howard Lutnick | Kristi Noem | Pete Hegseth | Markwayne Mullin | Marco Rubio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 13, 2026 | 30.0% | 23.8% | 26.0% | 30.5% | 7.0% |
| August 20, 2026 | 29.5% | 22.0% | 25.5% | 17.0% | 6.5% |
| August 27, 2026 | 29.5% | 23.7% | 22.5% | 28.5% | 6.0% |
| September 3, 2026 | 28.0% | 46.0% | 22.5% | 21.5% | 6.5% |
| September 10, 2026 | 23.5% | 29.5% | 21.0% | 21.5% | 8.0% |
| September 17, 2026 | 24.0% | 33.1% | 23.0% | 30.0% | 9.5% |
| September 24, 2026 | 23.0% | 31.1% | 22.5% | 20.5% | 6.5% |
| October 1, 2026 | 15.0% | 34.5% | 20.0% | 38.0% | 4.5% |
| October 8, 2026 | 15.0% | 33.5% | 22.5% | 30.5% | 5.0% |
| October 16, 2026 | 14.5% | 31.9% | 21.5% | 29.0% | 4.5% |
| October 25, 2026 | 13.5% | 32.6% | 25.0% | 33.0% | 7.0% |
| November 2, 2026 | 10.5% | 26.9% | 36.0% | 30.5% | 9.5% |
| November 10, 2026 | 23.5% | 17.3% | 28.5% | 13.5% | 10.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 24.0% | 19.2% | 14.5% | 10.5% | 9.5% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for Howard Lutnick in "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 24% as of November 11, 2026, up 6 points from a week earlier. A 24 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Kristi Noem in "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 19% as of November 11, 2026, down 7 points from a week earlier. A 19 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for Pete Hegseth in "Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 15% as of November 11, 2026, down 25 points from a week earlier. A 15 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.