Will Trump be impeached by...?
As of November 11, 2026, the favorite is December 31, 2027 at 56%, ahead of June 30, 2027 at 35%. $1.3M has traded across 3 outcomes. The biggest move this week: June 30, 2027, −32 pts.
The field
Three months of it
- December 31, 2027 56%
- June 30, 2027 35%
- December 31, 2026 1%
Show the numbers
| Date | December 31, 2027 | June 30, 2027 | December 31, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 16, 2026 | 48.5% | 50.5% | 1.8% |
| September 20, 2026 | 61.0% | 46.5% | 2.7% |
| September 24, 2026 | 80.5% | 43.5% | 1.5% |
| September 28, 2026 | 59.0% | 52.0% | 1.7% |
| October 2, 2026 | 62.0% | 35.0% | 2.5% |
| October 6, 2026 | 58.5% | 39.5% | 1.8% |
| October 11, 2026 | 70.0% | 47.5% | 1.8% |
| October 16, 2026 | 68.5% | 58.5% | 2.5% |
| October 21, 2026 | 62.0% | 49.0% | 2.1% |
| October 28, 2026 | 62.0% | 46.5% | 1.8% |
| November 2, 2026 | 66.0% | 46.5% | 3.9% |
| November 7, 2026 | 57.0% | 37.0% | 1.5% |
| November 11, 2026 | 55.5% | 34.5% | 1.3% |
Quick answers
- What are the odds for December 31, 2027 in "Will Trump be impeached by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 56% as of November 11, 2026, down 24 points from a week earlier. A 56 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for June 30, 2027 in "Will Trump be impeached by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 35% as of November 11, 2026, down 32 points from a week earlier. A 35 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- What are the odds for December 31, 2026 in "Will Trump be impeached by...?"?
- Polymarket traders priced it at 1% as of November 11, 2026, down 3 points from a week earlier. A 1 cent YES contract pays $1 if it happens.
- How are these odds calculated?
- They are the YES price of each contract on Polymarket: the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less, otherwise the last trade. Prices are fetched from Polymarket's public data and this page shows when.
How this one gets decided
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.